An independent population forecast for The Gambia, out to 2074

An independent population projection for a country whose published figures were set before the 2024 digital census. 7 million below the UN. The engine reproduces the UN's own projection to within 1 percent when fed their inputs. Three forms of Lee-Carter mortality, run over 1,000 futures.

~4.66M by 2074 (4.35 to 4.98M), within 1% of the UN

Basel II scorecard for West African microfinance

Microfinance loan officers in West Africa make lending decisions on intuition because the analytical infrastructure is not there. 21 on a later-vintage holdout. Below production thresholds, and the ceiling is set by the synthetic generator, not the fitting.

Gini 0.27 · KS 0.21 on a later-vintage holdout · PSI 0.002 while defaults rose a third

Actuarial risk model for Sub-Saharan Africa

Standard actuarial models were calibrated on US and UK data, and they under-represent the constant background hazard that dominates mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. I built the model from the mortality table up: Gompertz-Makeham, select-and-ultimate, Cox PH, and Monte Carlo VaR over 5,000 scenarios.

Cox PH C-index 0.77 · 5k Monte Carlo sims

A synthetic-data engine for finance, from domain rules or from real data

Banks in West Africa hold customer data they cannot share, and for rural borrowers the data was never collected. NOVA generates synthetic data two ways: from a description of the columns and their rules, or from a real dataset via a Conditional Tabular GAN written from scratch in PyTorch. 10.

TSTR 0.92 · 4 checks pass · 7 domains, no source data needed

RAG chatbot for Gambian law

Lawyers in The Gambia are expensive, the statutes are scattered across PDFs, and a hallucinated answer in a legal question does real harm. I built a RAG system over 13 Acts of Parliament where answers name the section they came from, or say the corpus does not cover the question.

Cites the section, or refuses. 13 Acts, validated before it answers